1. Problem Recognition, Definition, and Evaluation
Base on productivity and volume of work for earth work job, duration of each activity for schedule development was calculated as on table1.
Relation of activities was Finish to Start.
Risk for those activities are identified and quantified as on table 2.
Need to develop schedule with consider the risk have occur on assesment.
2. Development of the Feasible Alternative
To develop schedule with consider the risk, Triangular distribution and PERT method is tools apply for risk assessment.
3. Development of the Outcomes and Cash flows for Each Alternative
LOW RANGE = Duration
MOST LIKELY = Duration x Low likelihood x Impact
HIGH RANGE = Duration x High likelihood x Impact
4. Selection of Criterion (or Criteria)
Duration for development schedule should include quantified risk and impact identify
5. Analysis and Comparison of the Alternative
Expected duration from triangular distribution is the average of Low range, most likely and high range.
PERTH was provided lower result on expected duration and provided standard deviation and variance.
6. Selection of the Preferred Alternative
PERTH method was prefer alternative, it’s provide more detail analysis for option (of duration) regarding level of confidence / accuracy.
7. Performance Monitoring and Post Evaluation of Result
Risk management uses the result risk assessment to work for the best out comes, but even the correct decision may be accompanied by unfavorable result that have a low probability of occurance1.
Even with a well-disciplined risk analysis, management may make bad decision with good information and bad result can happen even from good decision1.
8. References :
1. Humphrey and Associates (2012), Project Management Using Earned Value, Chapter 17. Pp. 325 – 334, Second Editions, Humphreys & Associates, Inc.
2. John K. Hollman (2012), Total Cost Management Framework, Section 7.6 pp. 163-176, 1st edition revised, AACE International.
3. Scott, Dr. Amos, PE (2012). Skills and knowlage of Cost Engineering, chapter 31 pp 31.1 – 31.8, 5th edition, AACE International, Createspace.